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中國走向消費型社會面臨障礙
中國經濟險阻,只買日用品,消費比印度低近一半 China faces obstacles on road to consumer society 美聯社 新聞 (Associated Press) 2014-01-30 成本高,營業額低--顧客都精打細算,趙國平北京的小店主說,開在社區的小店年營業額下降了一半,為五萬元人民幣。"物價飆升,老百姓的收入跟不上。日用品我還會買。其它不是非買不可的,我一概不買。"改革日益緊迫,障礙也日漸明顯。個人消費僅占國民生產總值的35%,遠低於鄰國印度(60%)。減少投資意味著,流向建築業工資以及鋼鐵水泥等建材工業的資金會更少。 趙國平,一位北京的小店主,生意原本應越來越紅火,因為中共領導人要建立內需消費型的社會,代替貿易投資型的經濟模式。然而,他的小店在財務上卻須掙紮度日。中央經濟政策面臨的挑戰由此可見一斑。 成本高,營業額低--顧客都精打細算,趙國平(音譯)說,開在社區的小店年營業額下降了一半,為五萬元人民幣。"物價飆升,老百姓的收入跟不上。日用品我還會買。其它不是非買不可的,我一概不買。"38歲的趙國平如是說。 無論是趙國平,還是他的顧客,在掏錢包時都很謹慎。這也是中共領導人試圖平衡經濟發展過程中所面臨的一個障礙。北京希望不再依賴投資,因為這一增長模式已經失去動力。 經濟窄路 過去十年,出口繁榮,新建工廠、高速路,帶來爆炸式增長,也幫助中國迅速從2008年全球危機中複蘇。但其代價是貸款激增。經濟學家警告,一些發展中國家的貸款激增曾導致金融危機。 改革日益緊迫,障礙也日漸明顯。個人消費僅占國民生產總值的35%,遠低於鄰國印度(60%)。減少投資意味著,流向建築業工資以及鋼鐵水泥等建材工業的資金會更少。 凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟師威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)說,決策者推動的經濟政策是一條窄路。"如果投資減速過度,將降低個人消費,從而產生下降螺旋。" 今年的增長率預計為7-8%。2013年為7.7%,而且是在年中北京推行小型經濟刺激計劃擴建鐵路和其它公共設施的情況下。 匯豐銀行調查發現,1月制造業削減就業崗位的幅度為五年來之最。去年12月,中國最大型企業增長速度為九個月來最低。工廠產出和零售額均走弱,意味著經濟走勢可能深度下行。 工資是漲了,卻趕不上物價上漲的幅度 私有經濟改革 對中共政府而言,鼓勵個人消費是馬拉松式的經濟改革的一部分。去年11月,黨的領導層承諾允許私人企業家在國有經濟控制的行業有更大的準入權。 本月,管理機構宣布今年將允許成立五家民營銀行。北京宣布了對上海自貿區的計劃,其它城市也有望減少商業限制。但變化需要時間。IHS Global Insight經濟師傑克遜(Brian Jackson)預計2014年不會有國家層面上的顯著改革,而是有一些小試驗。 銀行債務風險 許多分析師認為,最大的風險在於中國國有銀行體系債務的急速累積。特別是2008年後。國際貨幣基金組織警告,如果當年的道路等投資項目被證明是急於上馬、入不敷出,可能會帶來呆壞賬的上升。 央行稱債務水平處於可控範圍內,但專家指出其遞增速度值得警惕。過去五年,未償還的銀行貸款已達到中國國民生產總值的70%。國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟師布蘭夏特(Olivier Blanchard)本月表示,中國必須在不過度影響經濟增長的情況下控制金融領域的風險累積。"這總是如同走平衡木。" 與此同時,北京縮減信貸規模、加緊控制民間借貸,對金融市場形成沖擊波。去年銀行間拆借兩次告急出現"錢荒",導致利率上升和市場不安情緒。瑞銀經濟師王濤(音譯)認為,這種對利率上升和流動性緊縮的不確定性可能對企業支出有更廣泛的影響。 (多少年來,到處是建築工地成為中國的標誌性景象) 物價上漲吞噬收入 在制造業集中的東南省份,今年的工資水平預計上升10%。但工人抱怨生活成本上漲吞噬了收入增加的部分。對政府促進內需的計劃來說,這也並非好的信號。來自上海的一位貨運經理雷強(音譯)說,每月支付基本開銷後,他與妻子已所剩無幾,全部都存起來。他們想帶著兩歲的女兒會西安老家,躲避上海的高物價。38歲的雷強說:"在上海三年了,我的房租每年都漲兩三成。這比我漲工資的幅度高多了。" |
China faces obstacles on road to consumer society
By JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer Jan. 30, 2014 2:37 AM ET A shopkeeper uses her smartphone as she waits for customers at the gate of a bag shop in Beijing Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. The reluctance of customers to open their wallets wider is one of a thicket of obstacles facing communist leaders as they try to rebalance China’s economy away from reliance on investment that is losing its ability to boost growth. (AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan) BEIJING (AP) -- Business should be picking up for Zhao Guoping, a Beijing shopkeeper, as Chinese leaders try to build a consumer society to replace a worn-out economic model based on trade and investment. But his financial struggle highlights the hurdles that ambitious effort faces. Squeezed by higher costs and weak sales to budget-minded shoppers, Zhao said the income from his neighborhood shop has fallen by half to 50,000 yuan ($6,000) a year. "Prices are rocketing up. People's incomes can hardly catch up," said Zhao, 38. "Daily necessities, yes, I still have to buy them. But anything I don't necessarily need, then no." The reluctance of Zhao and his customers to open their wallets wider is one of a thicket of obstacles facing communist leaders as they try to rebalance China's economy away from reliance on investment that is losing its ability to boost growth. Combined with an export boom, a flood of spending on new factories, highways and other assets powered the past decade of explosive growth. That helped China rebound quickly from the 2008 global crisis. But it was paid for with a surge in borrowing that economists warn looks like debt booms in other developing countries that spiraled into financial crises. As urgency for change mounts, so do potential hurdles. Consumer spending accounts for only about 35 percent of gross domestic product, well below neighboring India's 60 percent, and that percentage declined last year. Curbs on investment will mean less money flows to wages in construction and building materials industries such as steel and cement. "It is a pretty narrow path that policymakers have to push the economy along," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics. "The risk is that if investment spending slows too much, then that starts to undermine consumer spending and you get a downward spiral." Forecasts of this year's growth range from 7 to 8 percent, far ahead of the United States and Europe but down from China's double-digit rates of the past decade. Last year's 7.7 percent growth tied with 2012 for the weakest performance in two decades. And it hit that only after Beijing launched a mini-stimulus in mid-2013 with more spending on building new railways and other public works. The impact of a government clampdown on lending and construction is showing in slower economic activity, raising the risk of politically difficult job losses. A survey by HSBC Corp. found manufacturers cut jobs in January at their fastest rate in five years. Profits at China's biggest companies grew in December at their slowest rate in nine months. Growth in factory output and retail sales weakened, suggesting the quarter's headline growth of 7.7 percent might mask a deepening downturn. Moves to encourage consumer spending are part of a marathon effort by the Communist Party to transform China from a low-wage factory into a high-income creator of technology with self-sustaining economic growth. A broad-strokes plan issued by the party leadership in November promises to give entrepreneurs who generate most of China's new jobs and wealth more access to state-dominated industries. Regulators announced this month they will allow the creation of five privately financed banks this year. Beijing has announced plans for a dozen new free-trade zones in Shanghai and other cities with promises of easier restrictions on business. But such changes will take time to show results. "Our expectation is that there isn't going to be any national-level substantive reform within 2014," said economist Brian Jackson of IHS Global Insight. "They're going to launch small experiments." The biggest potential growth risk cited by many analysts: A rapid buildup of debt in China's government-owned banking system. China's banks avoided mortgage-related turmoil that battered Western lenders but ramped up lending under orders from Beijing to help fend off the effects of the 2008 global slowdown. The IMF and industry analysts warn they might be hit by a rise in defaults if toll roads and other projects approved in haste fail to earn enough. The central bank says debt levels are manageable but economists say the speed of the increase is a warning sign. Outstanding bank loans have swelled by the equivalent of 70 percent of China's gross domestic product over the past five years. Analysts point to countries such as Thailand that have plunged into financial crises after seeing smaller debt increases of as little as 30 percent. China "needs to contain the building of risks in the financial sector without excessively slowing growth," said the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, at a news conference this month. "This is always a very a delicate balancing act." At the same time, Beijing's effort to clamp down on credit and tighten control over informal lending that support entrepreneurs has sent shock waves through financial markets. Markets in which banks lend to each other ran short of cash twice last year, causing interest rates to spike and fueling unease about the availability of credit. "The uncertainty related to rate spikes and liquidity squeezes may affect business spending more broadly," said UBS economist Tao Wang in a report. Wages in some areas such as the manufacturing-intensive southeast are forecast to rise this year by as much as 10 percent. But workers complain gains are eaten up by rising living costs — a bad sign for government hopes for higher consumer spending. Lei Qiang, a logistics manager in Shanghai, said he and his wife have little left every month after paying for basics and save whatever they can. They plan to return to their hometown of Xi'an in western China with their 2-year-old daughter to escape Shanghai's high cost of living. "Living in Shanghai for three years, my rent went up every year by 20 to 30 percent," said Lei, 38. "That was far more than my pay rose." |